RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN UNIFORMLY INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND RECURRENCE WIND SPEED BASED ON STATISTICAL TYPHOON SIMULATION

Abstract

 Increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) caused by global warming might affect the recurrence wind speed by typhoon. Because the future spatial distribution of SST is uncertain, we proposed a method for uniformly increasing SST for use as the boundary condition of typhoon model. The output of statistical typhoon simulation with uniform increase of SST yielded the typhoon intensity, as did the model based on physical processes. Furthermore, estimation of the relation between the amount of SST increase and recurrence wind speed of typhoons was conducted using statistical typhoon simulation with uniformly increasing SST. Results show that 400-year recurrence wind speed will be less than the 100-year recurrence value in areas except Okinawa and northern Japan by the end of the 21st century.