Abstract
The present study is to estimate the reliability for the seepage failure of the levee considering the uncertainty of the geotechnical characteristic and the probability of occurrence of the floodway water level in a year at the same time. It has aimed to calculate the annual probability of the levee failure caused by the circular slide due to the rise of water level. For this purpose, the fragility curve was first obtained by the probability of the seepage failure using the stochastic finite element method incorporating the uncertainty of shear strength. Furthermore, the hazard curve of the annual exceedance probability derived from the observational data of the floodway water level was determined. Using these results, the annual probability density of the failure of an existent levee under each water level and the annual probability the failure were calculated. Based on these results, it is suggested that the safety of the levee is able to be made quantitatively evaluated by the reliability index and/or the failure probability.
