Abstract
In this paper, we consider the transition process of a disaster prevention consciousness and action as a disaster subculture, and present an analytical framework using a mathematical simulation in order to enable quantitative consideration. After an unknown parameters estimation by using a questionnaire survey data, we describe the actual situation in this simulation model, and evaluate an influences imparted to the population ratio of four states related with the disaster prevention consciousness and action by some explanatory variables such as a force of contagion, a move-out ratio, and so on. As a result, we receive valuable suggestions that it is impossible to avoid a fading of the disaster prevention consciousness, and that it is possible to vitalize the disaster prevention action continuously if some social conditions are satisfied.