2019 Volume 75 Issue 1 Pages 12-30
On expressways, it is important to execute appropriate traffic regulations with coherent bases (i.e. results of disaster occurrence forecasting) for ensuring users’ safety against slope disaster caused by rainfall. In this study, the authors propose methodology for establishment of traffic regulation standards in consideration of the two types of risks: i) risk that slope disaster occurs when a traffic regulation is not executed, and ii) risk that slope disaster does not occur when a traffic regulation is executed. Specifically, the joint occurrence probability of slope disaster and rainfall are statistically formulated with the past slope disaster data and exogenous/endogenous data. Furthermore, the two types of risks are quantified with the joint occurrence probability, and an optimization model is formulated for determination of optimal regulation standards which minimize the sum of the two types of risks. Lastly, the effectiveness of the proposed methodology is discussed by using the actual slope disaster records in an expressway section.
