How to Practice Scenario Planning

Abstract

Scenario Planning, regarded as the most advanced in CI analysis, is the technique introduced by trial and error. The traditional analysis was based on the following two approaches: “know the enemy (your rival company)" and “predict the future". This had come to fail especially since 1990's with the sudden entry of unpredicted rival companies from different industries. Thus the approaches, “know yourself (your company)" and “prepare for the future", have come to be emphasized instead. The combination of these two has led to the present-day Scenario Planning. It starts with the analysis of vulnerabilities of your company, followed by the creation of scenarios. The keys to the success of Scenario Planning are to create only scenarios affecting your serious interests, to discover and emphasize predetermined elements, and to clarify the driving force behind each scenario.