7. 2021年8月お盆嬉野市中心九州集中豪雨

（計算雨量823 mm実測雨量796mm誤差4％）

抄録

Western sea water temperature off at Amakusa-City is 28 C. Evaporation rate 9.127cc/m2/ minutes. Evaporation amount 52.565mm/cm2 for 96 hours. 50 km/h of western wind. The length of steamy area = 50 km/h x 96 h = 4800 km. The length of the precipitation area like a line (from Amakusa -City, Moji-- City) is 219 km. A torrential downpour concentration ratio = 21.9 times = 4800/219. Therefore calculated rainfall =52.56 mm x 21.9 time =1153 mm. The measured rainfall in Ureshino city= 1024 mm. Therefore the error is 13%. There is a possibility that a torrential downpour prediction can be expected by sea water temperature.