87. パラメータアンサンブルによる予測値のばらつきを用いた日射量予測大外し予見

抄録

In order to foresee the possibility of happening a large forecast error of irradiance, using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in which the combination of physical schemes can be changed we have developed a model to foresee a large forecast error by analyzing the variation of forecast weather parameters values among different combination of physical schemes. In this paper, we vary the number of model combinations used for the predictor of large forecast error and compare the foreseeing accuracy of large forecast error.