91. Development of technology for a day-ahead and two days-ahead solar radiation forecasting

-Analysis of case studies of large solar radiation forecasting errors in multi-power areas-

Abstract

Large errors in global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts in several power areas simultaneously affect the operation of inter-area flexibility to stabilise electricity supply and demand operations. The study first identified cases of simultaneous large GHI forecast errors in several power areas based on the global model of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Particular attention was paid to the case of 1 May 2021, when five power areas were simultaneously out of forecast. The results of the analysis of the cases, including the characteristics of meteorological fields at the time of the large errors, are presented below.