We have been developing methods of short-time solar radiation forecast using meteorological satellite imagery. Changes in solar radiation are mainly due to cloud movement up to a few hours ahead, but as the forecast time becomes longer, the effect of cloud formation and dissipation becomes more significant. In weather forecasting, there is always inherent uncertainty, and probabilistic predictions are crucial for assessing risks and making informed decisions. In this study, we report on our efforts to advance solar radiation forecasting technology under the NEDO project regarding the above issues.
