社会経済因子の出生力に与えた影響に関する研究

―1955年から1980年までの分析―

抄録

The extent of direct and indirect effect of socio-economic factors on fertility in Japan was estimated with pathoanalysis. Path model was constructed based on ?gmodernization?h or ?gdevelopment?h theory which indicated economic development accompanying industrization and urbanization would accelate the reduction of fertility. The changing trend was speculated each five years from 1955 through 1980, therefore, six data sets which were aggregated by prefecture form the basis of analysis. From 1955 through 1965, industrization (=economic development) exerts the converse indirect effect on fertility through education factor in divergent manner during the period. In 1970 model, the selected variables failed to explain any contribution to fertility. Unknown factors are presumably involved. From 1975 through 1980, urbanization exerts the direct effect, and converse indirect effect through marriage rate on fertility. Industrization also carries the converse effect directly this period. I nfant mortality had played no substantial role during the whole period concerned. In consideration of marked change in 1970 model and the pattern has been hold thereafter, some renovation of behavior or consciousness might occur during the period between 1965 and 1975.