Transactions of the Japan Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Online ISSN : 2424-0982
ISSN-L : 0917-2246
The technique of calculating the winning percentage in baseball games with runners' advancement statistics(Practice)
Kiyoshi OsawaKento Aida
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2008 Volume 18 Issue 3 Pages 321-346

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Abstract
In this paper, we propose a method to calculate winning percentages in baseball games. In conventional methods the probabilities derived from batting statistics are applied to Markov chain with the D'Esopo and Lefkowitz runner advancement model in order to calculate the percentage. The proposed method calculates the percentage by analyzing not only batting statistics but also runners' advancement statistics. The experimental results show that the percentage calculated by the proposed method is closer to the actual results compared to the conventional methods. In addition, we evaluate the effect of batting statistics and runners' statistics on the winning percentage.
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© 2008 The Japan Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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