Consideration of the Fourth Epidemic Wave and Suppression Effect by Vaccination in COVID-19

Abstract

Abstract. We extend Odagaki’s SIQR model to simulate or predict the time evolution of successive epidemic waves of the COVID-19. In order to investigate the time evolution of the epidemic wave after the 3rd wave in Japan, we perform simulation of the epidemic spread in primary cities using our model. Additionally, we extend our model to include the effects of the vaccination. Finally, we evaluate the effects of the vaccination on the basis of data in UK, which starts vaccinations, and investigate the effects of the vaccination, quantitatively.