Abstract
The changes and prediction of the prevalence rate of diabetes mellitus (DM), and the percentage of DM patients receiving therapy (rate of treated patients) during the remaining years until 2000 AD were obtained by exponential regression analysis on the basis of various data accumulated during the most recent 10 or more years. As a result, assuming that recent trends would continue, the DM prevalence rate and rate of treated DM patients were estimated to increase at a considerably faster rate than the corresponding increase rates of all diseases as a function of age-group, the expected rate of increase is especially large 'n the age group over 64 years. It was estimated that in the year 2000 the DM prevalence rate will be 4 times and the rate of treated DM patients will be 2 times their 1985 rates. In the study of formulizing estimation of the prefectural prevalence rate of DM, using Patient Survey results, a new method of estimation of the prevalence rate of DM was developed in which the number of total illnesses was considered. This method was found to be valid. Next, the results of health examination (the DM-positive rate, the urinary glucose-positive rate, the receiving rate) performed in accordance with the Health and Medical Services Law for the Aged and the DM prevalence rate calculated from the Patient Survey were subjected to correlation analyses. The analyses revealed a positive correlation between the positive rates of these parameters and the DM prevalence rate.
