Abstract
A pacemaker (PM) and an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) are devices that are inserted into the body to maintain regular heart rhythm in patients with serious heart rhythm problems. Among Japan's aging population, the number of patients requiring PM and ICD implantation has gradually and steadily increased. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of the future number of those patients is not only clinically, but also medical-economically and politically important. In this study, to develop a forecasting model for the number of patients requiring PM or ICD implantation, we analyzed past records of the number of PM and ICD implantation from 2006 to 2013 in Japan. Using a multiple regression analysis, we show the age and gender dependence of the number of PM and ICD implantation in each year, and propose a forecasting model based on age and gender composition rates of population. Moreover, as an application of our model, we estimate the future demand of PM and ICD devices in Japan.
