抄録
In the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, because it is predicted dramatically increase the number of senior citizens, it is urgent for the local government to estimate accurately the future medical demand. Therefore, we constructed an innovative simulation system with a geographic information system (GIS) to predict the future medical demand. We calculated patient numbers for every 500 square meters of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area until 2040 and estimated whether those in need could be admitted to hospitals within an hour's drive from their homes. The simulation demonstrates that patients may not be able to find hospitals within this time framework. Then, we prepared 2 scenarios. Scenario 1 was same as the existing condition, and scenario 2 reflected a previous trend of the medical treatment ratio. In scenario 1, the situation will be especially serious in the center of Tokyo and along the railway lines, where many senior citizens reside. However, in scenario 2, patients who can't find hospitals within an hour's drive has hardly appeared because of decrease of the number of patients.
