Regional differences in the future demand for implantable cardiac devices in Japan

Abstract

As Japan is facing a super-aged society, growing medical expenses and doctor shortage have become major public health problems. To cope with these problems, it is important to forecast future demand of medical services and supplies. To provide an insight into such problems, we here investigate future demand for cardiac implantable electrical devices, such as pacemaker (PM) and implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). In this study, based on the analysis of past records of annual number of PM and ICD implantation from 2006 to 2014 in Japan, we build a predictive model to forecast the future number of PM and ICD implantation. In this model, age and gender composition rates of population are assumed to be explanatory variables. As an application of this model, we estimate the future demand of PM and ICD devices in each prefecture in Japan until 2040, and discuss regional differences.