Building countermeasures against novel coronavirus 2019 using mathematical models

Abstract

Novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) caused a global pandemic since the end of 2019. In Japan, this became a first instance in which mathematical models were widely used for policymaking process. In my talk, I will review how such countermeasures were designed using mathematical models, and how the interventions were evaluated. In particular, following subjects are covered:

1. Cluster interventions and asymptomatic transmission

2. Invasion probability and travel restrictions

3. Effective reproduction number and state of emergency

4. Countermeasures that shape the state of emergency

5. Problems surrounding statistical estimation of the reproduction number