Future scenarios on energy consumption and production related to combustible waste management in depopulation areas of Japan

Abstract

Japan's population began to decline after reaching 128 million in 2008. As the population declines, it is expected that the amount of combustible waste delivered to incineration facilities will continue to decrease. This study aimed to examine how combustible waste could be effectively treated from the viewpoint of energy in rural areas in Japan, proposing the indicator of the net energy production rate. First, we projected the future per capita combustible waste generation, physical composition, and lower calorific value. Next, four combustible waste treatment scenarios (incineration scenario, WtE incineration scenario, thermal drying scenario, and bio-drying scenario) were designed. The bio-drying scenario with RDF production had the highest net energy production, with the rates ranging from 43.8% to 60.7%.