Monte Carlo simulation for the uncertainty of environmental load assessment based on LCA

抄録

In LCA, it is very important to determine and quantify the uncertainty of LCI results or/and LCA results which propagates from the input parameter uncertainties, model uncertainty, spatial and temporal variability etc. In this paper, matrix based Monte Carlo simulation method for uncertainty analysis is introduced. Moreover, the LCA uncertainty analysis result by Monte Carlo simulation method and that by the approximate calculation method,based on the central limitation theorem are compared, and the precision of the uncertainty approximate calculation is investigated.