抄録
There are a number of long-term energy scenarios toward establishing a sustainable society, particularly a low-carbon society. However, it is unclear whether such scenarios are feasible in terms of resource depletion. This paper proposes a method for assessing balance of long-term metal demand and supply based on existing energy scenarios. The paper focuses on copper depletion since introducing low-carbon technologies (e.g., electric vehicle (EV)) may induce massive copper consumptions. Our method proposes two approaches (macro approach and micro approach) in order to estimate copper demand from two different angles, i.e., economic growth and dissemination of products. Results illustrate that the cumulative copper consumptions exceed the copper reserved in the earth by around 2050. The increase in copper consumptions results mainly from world economic growth led by emerging countries, while dissemination of EVs has a minor impact on it.
