Abstract
Fuel cell cogeneration is a promising technology of energy systems in pursuit of a sustainable society. However, it is unpredictable how many fuel cell cogeneration systems will be diffused in a region since there are many future uncertainties, such as people's lifestyles and national energy policies. To tackle with this problem, this paper describes scenarios to analyze the diffusion of fuel cell cogeneration systems for apartment buildings. We develop a simulation model for estimating the diffusion of residential energy systems, in which conjoint analysis is undertaken in order to analyze consumers' preferences. In a case study, several scenarios are written for estimating the diffusion of fuel cell cogeneration systems, where the region of interest is apartment buildings in Kansai Area, Japan from 2013-2030 The scenarios described in the case study differ in terms of nuclear energy policies. The results show that the number of fuel cell cogeneration systems in 2030 reaches 99-200 thousand depending on national energy policies.
