抄録
A variety of energy-saving and -generating products, such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, are being diffused to reduce electricity demand in residential sectors. When one attempts to understand changes in electricity demand in the future, the problem is the existence of numerous unpredictable factors (e.g., peoples' lifestyle and national energy policy) associated with the diffusion of such products. This paper takes a scenario approach to analyzing the impacts of the product diffusion on residential electricty demand under different social circumstances. For the analysis, two simulation models are employed; i.e., (i) a model to estimate the diffusion of products based on consumers' preferences and (ii) a model to estimate electricity demand in residential sectors given the resulting product diffusion. A case study of scenario analysis of the electricity demand in the residential sector in Toyonaka City, Osaka, Japan in 2030 is carried out. The results reveal that the net electricity demand in the city in 2030 is decreased 20-39% from the 2012 level depending on scenarios, where demographic changes and PV diffusion are among critical factors.
