車パーツのリビルドの生産需要予測モデルの構築

抄録

Developing a reliable forecasting process is a crucial step for optimization of the overall planning process of product remanufacturing. The current study examined the effectiveness of demand forecasting in remanufacturing by using time series analysis (the exponential smoothing methods) and product lifetime model (Weibull distribution model). To verify the effectiveness, the actual data of the time series of the sales of remanufactured automotive parts of an independent remanufacturer over a period of 12 years was used. The results examined for 1) the forecasting over a year by time series analysis (double exponential smoothing method), 2) forecasting over two months by time series analysis (triple exponential smoothing method and ARIMA model), and 3) forecasting over a year by Weibull distribution model, are presented. The implications of the results and the future steps are discussed.