シナリオ分析を用いた木質バイオマスエネルギー事業プランニング支援手法の提案

抄録

This paper aims to develop a planning support method for sustainable woody biomass energy business. The problem is that current practices are done by professional consultants and knowledge used for planning of woody biomass energy business tends to be implicit and less systematized. To formalize the planning process, we conducted interviews with business practitioners and field surveys. Based on the results, we developed the list of planning items that need to be considered. Moreover, because future uncertainties are critically influential on the sustainability of the business, we applied scenario analysis to business planning. To demonstrate the proposed method, we carried out a case study in a mountain forest area in Japan.