Uncertainty Quantification and Credibility Assessment for Surprise

Abstract

In production, it is necessary to incorporate KANDO Quality, which is related to human emotion (KANDO: a favorable experience with Surprise that is greater than past experiences). With this, product planning is required to ensure KANDO Quality. In product planning, UQ (Uncertainty Quantification) is important to ensure quality. However, there is no UQ for emotion. This paper shows a framework for UQ and credibility evaluation in the quantification of emotional quality. Surprise (a part of KANDO) toward the same object (Stationery that has won or not won a design award) is quantified by EEG measurement, mathematical modeling, and subjective survey. The UQ in this quantification is created by kernel density estimation. The credibility evaluation was conducted using the ASME V&V40 framework, and the evidence was integrated using BN (Bayesian Network). This suggested that the credibility assessment using the ASME V&V40 framework quantitatively ensures the credibility of the UQ in the quantification of Surprise.