Abstract
When the system is subjected to excess dynamic load, the response has hysteresis loop characteristic caused by plastic deformation. A practical estimation method of the first excursion probability of such structures subjected to random excitations such as seismic motions is proposed. The first excursion probability of structures with hysteresis loop characteristic is obtained from theoretical method. When the tolerance level is normalized by the expected value of the maximum response of the structure with hysteresis loop characteristic, the first excursion probability can be estimated independent of the damping ratio and the natural period.
