Abstract
It is very important to understand the mechanism of track deterioration and predict track settlement or track irregularity growth rate for reducing track maintenance cost and designing new components of track structures. Some prediction models of track settlement which mainly consists of a vehicle/track dynamic model and a track settlement law have been so far proposed. In this paper, a prediction model of track settlement based on dynamic simulation and Japanese ballast settlement law is described and its adequacy has been studied in comparison between analytical results and measured results obtained during almost five years at a track site. As a result, good agreement with the analytical results and the measured results has been obtained.
