“Self-Fulfilling Prophecy” and Rationality

Thought Experiment by Boolean Analysis

Abstract

While many researchers claim that the phenomenon of self-fulfilling prophecy is a product of false definition of the situation, some argue that it is explained by the mechanism involving weak (subjective) rationality. Using Boolean analysis, this paper explores various mechanisms leading to the phenomenon.
The results of the analysis show that weak rationality itself is not sufficient to explain the phenomenon ; actor's believing the prophecy is also important. Revising R. K. Merton's exemplification, we can describe consistently the phenomenon as social dilemma under the condition that actors receive a prophecy threatening their interests.