This study aimed to determine the effects of scoring patterns and time goal differences on wins and losses in recent years in rugby union.
We used data from 223 test matches and 318 matches from the Kanto University Rugby League Division 1, Kanto University Rugby Intercollegiate A Group, and Kansai University Rugby League A to compare the ratio of scoring methods and examine the influence of goal difference on wins and losses in time periods using logistic regression analysis.
The results revealed that tries and conversion goals were the most important scoring methods in university rugby and penalty goals in test matches. Considering close matches in university rugby, we found that the early and late stages of the match and early stages of the second half were the most critical periods. Regarding close matches in test matches, we found that making the most of scoring opportunities throughout the match was important. We found clear evidence that in both university rugby and test matches a one-sided game was expected to develop when the final goal difference was 8 points or more, whereas goal difference at any time did not affect the game’s outcome.
