2022 Volume 8 Issue 1 Pages 11-20
It is important to evaluate past reconstruction city planning to promote pre-reconstruction. In evaluating, it is necessary to consider the trade-off between the cost of construction and the number of successful evacuees. In this study, we formulate an evacuation network design problem (ENDP) using a recursive logit model, which is suitable for reproducing evacuation scheduling, to find capacity enhancement patterns that minimizes construction cost and maximizes the number of successful evacuees. We apply the ENDP to the Sanriku coast and compare the result of the actual population distribution (factual) and that of the population distribution scenarios for different scales of relocation to higher ground after the Chilean earthquake tsunami (counterfactual) and evaluate past reconstruction city planning on the Pareto frontier. The results show the usefulness of the evaluation method, by which we can consider the difference in the efficiency of road construction according to the population distribution and can compare the road capacity enhancement pattern of the Pareto solutions with the actual road construction.
