A study on disaster resilient community development which set evacuation facilities as core

choice behavior model of evacuation destination for tsunami evacuees and suitable location plan for evacuation facilities

Abstract

This study proposed an evacuation shelter choice model from great tsunami by using the actual behavioral data collected by the survey of the MILT in the Great East Japan Earthquake. The behavioral data in the flat land of Sendai-city, Natori-city and Iwanuma-city were analyzed. As a result, it was confirmed that “direction to shelter”, “distance to shelter”, “height of shelter” and “footprint of shelter” strongly affected choice of evacuation facility. The covered areas of shelters, where each shelter has the highest choice probability, were drawn by using the estimated model formulas. Compared with previous models, it was shown that the model of this study can make highly accurate covered areas of shelters. When it comes to layout of evacuation shelters, it is necessary to consider scale of shelters and distance between shelters in addition to choice behavior of evacuees on foot and choice behavior of evacuees by car.