STUDY ON FUTURE STORM SURGE AROUND SUO-NADA SEA

Abstract

 Suo-nada Sea has a vulnerability against storm surge, however there are less investigations on storm surge in the sea area comparing with the three major bays or Ariake Sea. Due to sea level rising and more intense typhoons than ever caused by global warming, it is concerned that storm surge disasters can be more severe in the future. Hence, future storm surges in Suo-nada Sea were investigated, and numerical simulations were performed using ocean circulation model. Firstly, the most suitable computational domain size for estimating storm surges in Suo-nada Sea was found and also verified the simulation accuracy depending on the data types of external forces and typhoon tracks. Secondly, the future change of typhoon characteristics around the sea area was evaluated with the large ensemble climate database. Finally, future storm surge in Suo-nada Sea was estimated with more reality, considering that the intensity of the typhoon was weakened according to the time when it was passing through land area. As a result, it was found that there is a risk of storm surge developing more than present in the future especially at inner part of the sea area.