FUTURE CHANGE IN MAXIMUM POTENTIAL STORM SURGE IN ISE BAY BASED ON DYNAMICAL DIRECT DOWNSCALING EXPERIMENTS

Abstract

 In order to estimate the future change in maximum potential storm surge (MPSS) in Ise Bay, Japan, we conducted track-ensemble experiments of a maximum intensity typhoon approaching to Ise Bay under the present and future climates, based on the dynamical direct downscaling technique. Numerical experiments indcated that the MPSS at the Port of Nagoya was 4.1m in the present climate and was 4.5m in the future climate, suggesting underestimation compared with the previous researches. The moving speed of the future typhoon was about 20 km/h, which was slower than that (about 40 km/h) of the present typhoon. In conclusion, increase of the MPSS in the future climate could be supressed from the balance with the natural oscillation period in the inner part of Ise Bay, and the future risk of storm surge disaster along the coast line of Mie Prefecture could be intensified relatively.