Development of Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model by using large ensemble GCM simulation data(d4PDF)

Abstract

 A global stochastic tropical cyclone model (GSTM) considering time series correlation of tropical cyclone properties has been developed by using large ensemble GCM simulation data (d4PDF). The bias of d4PDF has been corrected by using the information of the average and the standard deviation of tropical cyclone properties comparing with that of IBTrACS. AS a result, we could get accurate correction results at each 3 degree grid. The improvement of the reproducibility of the frequency has been observed at many area by using the joint probability distribution functions (JPDF) of GSTM approximated from the corrected d4PDF data. Especially, this improvement was significant in the area that the tropical cyclone data is insufficient. The simulation results show the variation of the change rate of future tropical cyclone frequency around Japan and the intensification of tropical cyclone depending on the SST scenario.