ENSEMBLE PREDICTION OF MONTHLY AVERAGED WAVE HEIGHT USING THE STATICAL WAVE MODEL

Abstract

 Wave predictions are used in various fields. Marine construction management is greatly influenced by the accuracy of wave forecasting. Wave predictions are made based on the spectral wave model forced by meteorological information, but most are mainly deterministic short-term predictions. On the other hand, it is essential that ensemble wave height prediction for obtaining prediction variability and probabilistic prediction information. In this study, a monthly ensemble wave height forecast was carried out using the statistical wave model. It was confirmed that the results of the ensemble wave prediction generally agree with the observed wave. However, it should be noted that it is underestimated during high waves. In addition, the error is larger when the spread is large, and the tendency was remarkable on the Sea of Japan side.