ASSESSMENT OF THE NATURAL VARIABILITY COMPONENTS IN LOCAL SEA LEVEL AROUND THE EAST ASIA USING MIROC6 PROJECTIONS

Abstract

 For climate adaptation planning for coastal area, understanding sea level rise on regional-scale is required. We have to assess not only changes in the global averaged sea level but also natural variability in local sea level. In this study, we conducted the analysis of dynamic sea level projection data from the global climate model (MIROC6) and revealed the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural variability in sea level over the North Pacific. We identified representative modes of natural variabilities in sea level including ENSO based on the EOF analysis. The representative EOF modes cause the temporal and local sea level change by more than 10 cm in the low latitude area and the Kuroshio area. In contrast, we found that smaller-scale phenomena dominate the sea-level changes in the Kuroshio extention area than in the North Pacific.