BIAS CORRECTION METHOD FOR d4PDF TYPHOON TRACK DATASET AND FUTURE CHANGES IN TYPHOON CENTRAL PRESSURE

Abstract

 In this study, we verified a bias correction method for the central pressure of the d4PDF (MRI-AGCM3.2H) typhoon track data assuming the storm surge estimation by the parametric typhoon model. Then, the future changes in the central pressure and return period of typhoons passing through the Pacific coast of Japan are estimated. The results showed that the model bias can be corrected well by applying the quantile mapping method to a low central pressure for each 2.5 latitude division, the typhoon central pressure tends to decrease for a longer return period than 10 years from future experiments, and the range of the SST model prediction uncertainty was up to 20hPa due to differences in future changes of the SST patterns.