PSEUDO GLOBAL WARMING EXPERIMENTS OF TYPHOON HAIYAN USING HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED ATOMSPHERE-OCEAN-WAVE MODEL

Abstract

 Pseudo-global-warming experiments were conducted for typhoon Haiyan using the 3-dimensional atmosphere-ocean difference caused by climate change directly. These experiments aim to understand the future change of typhoon under consistent method in civil engineering. The ocean future change in CMIP5 showed increase of 2.6 – 2.9 ℃ in the surface mixed layer, with little change in the current velocity. The series of experiments were conducted using the coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model COAWST, and the typhoon in the historical climate reproduced the Best Track well. The typhoons in the future climate showed a decrease in the central pressure of about 34 hPa and an increase in the maximum wind speed of about 12 m/s at the time of fully development, compared to the typhoon in the historical climate. The surge difference obtained by the coupled model corresponds to the suction effect due to the central pressure change. The sea surface temperature increase strengthened the typhoon. The anomaly of sea water temperature associated with the passage of the typhoon were almost the same in the historical and future climate.