FUTURE CHANGES IN L2 STORM SURGE IN ISE BAY DOWNSCALED DIRECTLY FROM LARGE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE SIMULATIONS d4PDF

Abstract

 The dynamic direct downscaling simulations by the high-resolution typhoon model and storm surge model for the top 50 typhoon cases are conducted in this study to evaluate the future changes of the L1/L2 storm surges in Ise Bay, Japan. The top 50 cases of extreme typhoons in the past and future climates are selected from the GCM database in the long-term ensemble projections d4PDF. The L2 storm surge under the future climate (its future change) is about 6.49 m (+1.39 m) at the inner part of Ise Bay and about 4.41 m (+0.74 m) at the west coast of Ise Bay. The L2 storm surge is enhanced especially at the inner part of Ise Bay, due to extreme typhoons with higher moving speeds under the future climate. The L1 storm surge under the future climate (its future change) is about 3.94 m (+0.51 m) at the inner part of Ise Bay and about 3.55 m (+1.03 m) at the west coast of Ise Bay. The L1 storm surge is increased more at the west coast of Ise Bay, owing to extreme typhoons with lower moving speeds under the future climate.