There is an estimation and evaluation method for ship performance in actual seas based on a probabilistic theory. However its investigation has not carried out enough, for the accuracy of weather measurements and the closed publication of voyage data. Here we conduct theoretical estimations based on a probabilistic theory in ship speed, fuel oil consumption and main engine power. Then the probability density function obtained by the present method is compared with the function obtained by voyage data, which are automatically collected every 10 minutes by T.S.Seiunmaru. As the results, we can indicate good agreements between both probability density functions. Moreover we propose an evaluation method of schedule keeping performance and voyage cost performance using the probability density functions.
