噴火発生頻度の時空間的特徴

─グローバルデータベースの解析─

抄録

Eruptive activities of volcanoes are examined by using a global data catalog of volcanoes provided from Smithsonian Institution. Yearly numbers of volcanic eruptions with a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) larger than or equal to 2 are almost constant from 1900, and the frequency distribution of the magnitude of volcanic eruptions obeys a power law in the range of VEI≥2. About 10 to 30% of volcanic eruptions with VEI≤2 end within one day, and 8 to 15% continue for more than 1 year. On the other hand, a few percentages of large eruptions with VEI≥3 end for a few days, and 25-30% continue for more than 1 year. Once an eruption occurs, the occurrence possibility of new eruptions at volcanoes locating within a 100km distance increases about 30% for 0.2 year. When the volcanoes locating at a region with a radius of 200km are examined together, yearly numbers of eruptions per volcano fluctuate within a factor of three for a few tens of years at more than about 90% of the regions. Frequency distribution of the yearly number of eruptions follows an exponential decay, which suggests an existence of a characteristic frequency of the eruptive activity on the globe. These averaged features of eruptive activities at volcanoes around the world can be used to give some basic characteristics of the occurrence of new eruptions.