紛争と選挙、アイデンティティの相互連関

―戦後イラクの国家建設過程―

抄録

Hasty statebuilding in the post-conflict state with introduction of electoral institutions may often accelerate identity politics, if it is composed with multi-ethnic/ religious communities and considered to be still under the process of nation-building. Post-war situation in Iraq can be considered as a case typical where ethic/sectarian cleavages are mobilised when majority systems are introduced instantly through elections. Electoral blocs in the post-war Iraq appear to have been formed along sectarian lines in order to gain a majority of voters collectively, in a situation where most of the major political parties were composed of expatriates and had not yet established nationwide supportive bases inside Iraq. Purpose of this article is to focus on the followings: (1) whether the identity politics along the sectarian cleavage was consolidated, and (2) when and in which circumstances might post-war political identities change among the Iraqi society. In order to clarify the above points, this paper attempts to analyse which factor do the political parties consider as a key social identity that can mobilise majority of the voters in the election.
Mobilisation patterns are diverse according to the political parties. UIA relied on Shiite sectarian networks, mainly in the southern governorates. By contrast, Iraqiya succeeded in obtaining a majority of votes in the central regions, where the most of the residents are considered to be Arab Sunnis, not by Sunni sectarianism but by combining various sources of mobilisation, such as tribal, local, kinship networks, through which the fame of candidates was established. Iraqiya emphasises the residents’ preferences on their choosing political leaders in each governorate independently. Among them the fame of the candidates is established by their careers in the local communities, either through social services or through activities of regional parties, in the regions which experienced the civil war. Success of Iraqiya in establishing its power base in the middle and northern governorates in Iraq can be ascribed to their absorption of the regional political powers which emerged as a result of the civil war.
Conflicting point that the voters matters has shifted from sectarianism to the regional identities, and gap between the central political powers and regional interest became more crucial, not only in the areas where Iraqiya dominates but also among the supporters of UIA, in parallel with the development of national and provincial elections. This paper proposes the necessity of introducing socio-economic analysis based on regional factor, instead of ethno-sectarian presupposition.