政権交代における中国外交の変化と継続性

―江沢民政権との比較における胡錦濤政権の対日政策―

抄録

Traditionally, the role of the supreme leader in foreign policy making has been regarded as decisive in authoritarian states such as China. Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), only four leaders—Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao—have run the state. Consequently, in the analysis of Chinese foreign policy, great emphasis has been placed on particular supreme leader’s “First Image,” or the role of the individual. However, unlike charismatic strongmen such as Mao and Deng, who had contributed to the establishment and the nation -building of the PRC, the leaders of later generations have had less authority and have been more constrained by collective decision-making.
This paper analyzes change and continuity in Chinese foreign policy toward Japan during the time of the transition from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao. Jiang ruled the PRC from the 1990s to the beginning of the twenty-first century. His generation carries the anti-Japanese feeling from its youth. Jiang emphasized the issue of national humiliation and frequently raised historical issues regarding Japan on diplomatic occasions. On the other hand, Hu’s generation has not been directly influenced by memories of war. In addition, in the early stages of his career, at the dawn of the “Reform & Opening Up” Policy, Hu was partly responsible for the large-scale participation in youth exchange programs between China and Japan. Consequently, his approach toward historical issues seemed to be much softer than Jiang’s was.
Looking back at Hu’s ten years as supreme leader, from 2002 to 2012, it is ironic that Sino-Japanese relations were shaped more by diplomatic tensions and unpleasant public sentiments, even though mutual economic dependence greatly increased. Hu’s goodwill and efforts to improve the bilateral relationship can be discerned even at the time of Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi’s repeated symbolic visits to the Yasukuni War Shrine, which became the main cause of tensions between the two countries at that time. On the other hand, after putting too much emphasis on historical issues and on repelling the Japanese, during his state visit, Jiang came to adopt a much more cooperative approach to Japan after China experienced serious tensions with the U.S. When the diplomatic obstacles were removed, Hu quickly exercised his personal leadership to improve the relationship with Japan. However, today’s Sino-Japanese relations are more influenced by such structural factors as China’s expansion of its maritime activities, the rise of nationalistic public opinion, and, ultimately, the shift in the power balance between the two counties. The role of personal leadership has become less influential.