同盟関係の変容に直面した二国の戦略とその帰結

――北朝鮮と台湾を事例として――

抄録

In international relations theory, balancing can be defined as provision of protection against a threat to a weaker state (junior partner) by a stronger ally (senior partner). Though there are several related works on this, the following question remains unanswered.

If the senior partner suddenly stops engaging balancing, what would the junior partner’s policy choice and its related consequences be?

This paper aims to provide an answer to this question by presenting two patterns of behaviors of the North Korea (DPRK) and Taiwan (ROC) as cases.

The DPRK found itself in a state of confusion when its two senior partners—the Soviet Union and China—established diplomatic ties with South Korea, while the ROC found itself in a difficult spot when the U.S. officially recognized the Mainland.

These changes have led to the following internal balancing strategies having contrasting patterns: the DPRK has chosen nuclear weapons as a means to protect itself from U.S.’ threat, whereas the ROC has decided to continue to depend on the U.S. to balance against China.

Asymmetric patterns can also be observed when we compare the two nations’ international economic policies. The DPRK’s level of economic interdependence with other nations, barring senior partners, has been low because of its closed and self-reliant economy. This has resulted high vulnerability to the change in the economic relations with their senior partners and the low sensitivity to the turbulence in the international economy. The situation in the ROC, on the other hand, is completely opposite as it has always been open to the global economy with diversified economic interdependence with other nations.

The DPRK’s continued nuclearization has resulted in the international society imposing economic sanctions on it, but effects of consecutive sanctions have been hedged by their closed and self-relied economy with dependence on the economic relations with China. The strategy that the DPRK employed—holding summits with the U.S.—can be described as bandwagon; this has, however, been unsuccessful due to the DPRK’s continued internal balancing strategy armed by nuclear weapons.

The ROC, on the other hand, has succeeded in establishing economic relations with its two former Cold War rivals—Russia and Vietnam; the ROC’s domestic market and investments by its private companies have attracted the two nations. The ROC’s approaches to these two were part of its hedging strategy to avoid vulnerability to economic interdependence with a limited number of nations, as well as isolation in the international society.