台湾の新しい課題と展望

東アジアの新しい国際環境

抄録

The aim of this article is to clarify and analyze the factors determining the Chinese-Taiwanese relationship, especially on the Taiwanese side.
Taiwan has rejected the call for unification by China since 1979. How long Taiwan's rejection can be sustained is the keypoint to determine the China-Taiwan relationship in future. Many reasons why Taiwan has rejected the unification call have been pointed out and one of these reasons, namely, Taiwan's self-confidence in its leadership, economy, and security has been emphasized by the Taiwan government itself as well as China watchers. However, examining these three fields in detail, some defects can be analyzed. First of all, its leadership has not been able to gain the confidence of the people mainly because of its double-structured administration. Secondly, despite its rapid progress, Taiwan's economy has structural weaknesses in the change of industrial structure, the size of capital, and isolation from the international money market. Thirdly, the circumstance of security around Taiwan is stable now, but Taiwan's security deeply depends on the U. S. policy, especially on U. S. arms sales. Therefore, if Sino-America relations change drastically, Taiwan will be faced with another security situation, different from the present stable one.
From this analysis, we can point out that Taiwan was forced to evolve these structural weakpoints in its economy, leadership, and security, in order to sustain the present relationship with China.