Political Alienation in Japan: Cohort Analysis of Political Efficacy

Abstract

This paper explores long-term changes in political alienation using cohort analysis. Empirical research shows that political alienation, which is defined as a lack of political efficacy, is a factor leading to the decline in political participation. However, long-term changes in political alienation and its determinants in Japan have been little studied. In this paper, using data from the “Survey on Japanese Orientations from 1973 to 2008” conducted by NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), we examined the realities of long-term changes in political alienation, the size of the generational effect and period effect as specified factors, and political alienation in the younger generation.

The results of the linear decomposition and multiple regression analysis indicated the following three points: (1) Political alienation increased from 1973 to 1998 and was reduced from 1998 to 2008. The trend of this change was shared between generations. (2) The increase in political alienation from 1973 to 1998 resulted from a positive period effect and a positive generation effect; the decrease in political alienation from 1998 to 2008 resulted from a negative period effect that exceeded a positive generation effect. (3) The young generation is more likely than the baby-boomer generation to be politically marginalized. Therefore, we interpret the generation effect as a war and democratization experience and the period effect as an increase in the possibility of change in government due to the collapse of the 55 system.