覇権政党体制の支柱崩壊と選挙による民主化の行方

BN敗退要因の体系的検討から

抄録

In May 2018, one of the most resilient, hegemonic parties, Barisan Nasional (BN) led by the UMNO (United Malays National Organisation), peacefully relinquished power after suffering defeat in the fourteenth general election (GE14). Recent studies (e.g., Welsh, eds. 2018; Hutchinson and Lee 2019; Gomez, et al. 2020) have pointed out various factors to explain the unexpected turnover of the government. These include: the 1MDB (1Malaysia Development Berhad) financial scandal; leadership factors, such as deteriorated anti-Najib sentiment and pragmatic support for the experienced Mahathir; the introduction of a Goods and Services Tax (GST); inflation and an increased cost of living; infighting within the UMNO; and the development of an opposition coalition and civic movements. However, few studies have provided a systematic analysis to show how these factors interacted to bring about the historical defeat of the BN, and which factors carried more weight. For example, the BN had survived more serious economic crises, factional splits, and coordinated challenges by opposition parties. We cannot understand the mechanism of the BN’s (acceptance of) electoral defeat merely by focusing on GE14-specific factors. This study extends the historical scope and fills this gap by exploring why and how the key pillars of the resilient, hegemonic party regime have been undermined since the 1990s and especially since Najib’s inauguration. By referring to comparative studies of hegemonic party regimes, this study highlights the significance of four complementary pillars of resilience: (1) the image of invincibility, (2) resource advantages, (3) spatial advantages, and (4) manipulative advantages. By systematically analyzing the electoral, socioeconomic, budgetary, survey, and electoral boundary data, this study elucidates how these weakening pillars have dampened the virtuous cycle of dominance. Although this study focuses mainly on the government turnover at GE14, it also discusses why the subsequent Pakatan Harapan (PH) government failed to consolidate its power base and allowed the UMNO and conservative, Malay-based factions/parties to take over the power by forming a new coalition, Perikatan Nasional (PN). It also discusses the latent vulnerability of the PN government and the future prospects for Malaysian democracy.