Forecasting of the Consumption of Metals up to 2050

抄録

Forecasts up to 2050 are made of consumption of the following metals: Fe, Al, Cu, Mn, Zn, Cr, Pb, Ni, Si, Sn, rare earths, Mo, Li, Sb, W, Ag, Co, In, Au, Ga, Pt and Pd. The forecasts are based on the linear decoupling model of the relation between per capita metal consumption and per capita GDP. The models of each metal are applied to the economic development model of BRICs and G6 countries. According to these forecasts, the overall consumption of metals in 2050 will be five times greater than the current levels, and demand for metals, such as Au, Ag, Cu, Ni, Sn, Zn, Pb and Sb, is expected to be several times greater than the amount of their respective reserves. Demand for Fe and Pt, which is considered to be optimistic about the resource exhaustion, will also exceed the current reserves. Urgent measures are needed to find alternatives from common resources and to shift into sound materials circulation society.