Abstract
It has been said that we are entering a stage in which super typhoons come to Japan with greater frequency than in the past. That makes people uneasy about the occurrence of big storm surges. Actually, the 19th typhoon of 1991 (Mireille) caused remarkable strom surges exceeding 3m in height accompanied by great inundation along the coast in the western part of the Inland Sea of Japan. In order to provide much more information on possible storm surges in advance than is done today, a dynamical-numerical model must be developed for the forecasting of them. This paper proposes a numerical storm surge forecast model and a procedure on a real time basis, and shows the result of an experimental forecast applied to Typhoon 9119. It includes a new method of determining the parameters of the typhoon model.
