Safeguarding Media-led Opinion Polls as Social Capital

Abstract

　Opinion polls are intended for capturing the voice of the silent majority.

They are nothing short of a painstaking hassle to collect the opinions of less

vocal or reticent people. In their opinion polls based on random digit dialing

（RDD）, they began targeting mobile phone numbers in addition to the traditional

targets with landline phone numbers. Such dual-frame RDD surveys that

target both types of numbers have gained sufficient responses so far. But many

challenges remain in ensuring their sustainability. Past the age of RDD, the

greatest challenge is adapting polls to ubiquitous smartphones.

　　The credibility of media-led opinion polls depends greatly on how precisely

they can predict election results. The recent politics of Japan has put us under

a new test in polling a likely national referendum on a constitutional amendment.